Playoff prediction time. Let me tell you my predictions with my reasoning and watch how horribly wrong I'll be. No 'number of games' predictions from me because those are just too wrong. Looking at Washington-Rangers last year, that series could have easily gone 7 games if it weren't for a few bad bounces and one huge mistake. So I won't make a fool of myself in those regards.
For those who don't want to read a lot, here are my short predictions:
East
NYR over OTT
BOS over WAS
NJD over FLA
PHI over PIT
NYR over NJD
PHI over BOS
NYR over PHI
West
VAN over LAK
STL over SJS
PHX over CHI
NSH over DET
NSH over VAN
STL over PHX
NSH over STL
Cup Winner: New York Rangers
Continue on to see the reasons why.
Eastern Conference
#1 New York Rangers vs #8 Ottawa Senators
With most preseason predictions having New York finish around the #7 spot and Ottawa not even making the playoffs no one could have seen this matchup coming.
#1 New York
The Rangers go into the preseason with a 6-4-0 record in their final 10 games. However, that record includes two completely meaningless games and does not accurately reflect their play in those final games. Henrik Lundqvist is playing the best hockey of his career and has been amazingly consistent the entire season (except for the final game against Washington.) The Rangers (and I could be wrong about this, there could be one other team) are the only team to have not switched goalies in a game due to performance. That says A LOT about their trust in the goalies and the skill of the goalies. Lundqvist is 3rd in save%, wins, and shutouts, and 4th in GAA. He's also the forerunner for the Vezina Trophy along with Jonathan Quick.
Brad Richards and Marian Gaborik are also hot going into the playoffs and Richards really started heating up in the final few weeks as he seems to have found chemistry with Gabby. Those two are a lethal combination and a threat anytime one of them touches the ice. Gaborik had a phenomenal regular-season finishing 3rd overall in goals and 15th in points. The secondary scoring for the Rangers is important for the Rangers as they've been lacking it for the past few years. Derek Stepan, Artem Anisimov, and Ryan Callahan make it difficult for any opponent to defend against the Rangers using their shutdown D-men.
Speaking of Callahan, the Captain of the Rangers will be the series changer (besides Lundqvist.) He brings it every single game and inspires his team like no one else in the league right now. He blocks shots, hits, scores, grinds, and does basically everything else you could ask for.
The Rangers also have one of the stingiest defensive corps in the league with an Eastern Conference-leading 187 goals against, good for third league-wide. While very young, they have proven that they can shut down any offense. The Rangers faced the three teams with the most goals for 16 times this season, winning 11 times and allowing more than 4 goals only 3 times.
#8 Ottawa
Ottawa backed into the playoffs and fell into the #8 spot after nearly passing Boston for the #2 slot only a few weeks ago. Don't count them out, though. Ottawa has beaten the Rangers 3 of 4 games this season. Craig Anderson and Ben Bishop can be a dangerous tandem in net (Bishop will probably be a star goalie one day, so this could be a breakout for him.) However, Anderson has only played 6 playoff games (lost 4) and Bishop has never played any. That inexperience and pressure could get to them. Their offense could be the redeeming factor.
Jason Spezza has had a great year, putting up points in the way he did his first couple of season. He also had 33 points in the final 24 games and scored a career-high-tying 34 goals this season. While he hasn't been very popular in Ottawa the past few years, a strong playoff performance could ease the tensions. Look for him to play his hardest and best hockey of the year.
Alfredsson, Ottawa's captain, could be in the final season of his lengthy career with Ottawa. At 39 years of age, retirement could be coming soon, despite still putting up good numbers every year. He'll be going all out in hopes of winning the Stanely Cup which has eluded him his entire career.
Ottawa's series changer will be Erik Karlsson. 78 points in 81 games in just his third season. He outshines every other defensemen in the league offensively. His passing and point shot could wreak havoc on the Rangers, especially if the series runs 7 games (injuries from blocking shots.)
Winner: Rangers
Rangers have been too good in the regular season and are too hungry to fall to this Ottawa team. They've either played big or come back big from every spotlight game this season (Winter Classic, Europe) and they've not let distractions interfere with their game in any way (HBO, MSG renovations.)
#2 Boston Bruins vs #7 Washington Capitals
I promise I won't say as much here...
#2 Boston
The Bruins looked to dominate the East this season after their unbeaten November and dominating play through the first half of the season. Then they settled in and took the #2 spot in the East while not threatening the Rangers #1 spot the rest of the season. Still, the defending champs have a team that remained largely unchanged in the offseason.
Tyler Seguin led the Bruins with 29 goals and 67 points. While those numbers seem low, Boston didn't need to score many goals to win a game thanks to Tim Thomas and Tuuka Rask. (Boston did have 3 or 4 shutouts while scoring more than 7 goals this year. Incredible.) Seguin made a big mark in last year's playoffs and was arguably the spark that ignited the Bruins to win the Cup.
Mentioned already: Thomas and Rask. Two goalies who are starters and had great numbers this season. Thomas didn't have his Vezina-winning numbers this year but there were still games where that skill shone brightly. The tandem can have a big playoffs this year, especially behind a strong defensive corp - led by Zdeno Chara. The Bruins also have this year's Selke Trophy winner (to be determined still, but if he doesn't win then everyone is blind) Patrice Bergeron. Second in the team in points is impressive, but an even more impressive stat: 59.3% on the faceoff. That's game-changing. Only Jonathan Toews was higher (59.4) of those with at least 1000 faceoffs taken but he took 500 fewer faceoffs.
#7 Washington
An incredibly disappointing season for the powerhouse of Washington. Injuries, poor chemistry, and laziness helped this team clinch the playoffs on the second to last game of the season. Many people didn't expect them to make it, especially since they replaced coach Bruce Boudreau with Dale Hunter after only 21 games. Hunter had a worse winning percentage than Boudreau.
Ovechkin seemed to find his game near the end of the season but if he gets frustrated against the strong Boston defense he could easily go cold like in the beginning of the season. Alex Semin is in the same boat. His game was surprisingly strong (for a notoriously lazy player) this season and he has to stay on his game for the Caps to have a chance.
The defense of the Caps has always been weak but that showed the most this year when the offense and goaltending weren't on fire. Washington was tied for 18th in goals against and is only one of two teams with a negative goal differential going into the playoffs. The Caps need the D to start showing up to games if they hope to win at all, especially since it looks like Brayden Holtby is going to be the starting goalie thanks to injuries to Vokoun and Neuvirth. Holtby has a total of 7 games played this season and only 21 in his career - not a single one in the playoffs. There is a lot of pressure on him and the fans aren't going to go easy after quick playoff exits in the past five years.
A ray of hope for Washington: the return of Nicklas Backstrom. He was scoring at a point-per-game pace before he was injured halfway through the season and was easily their best player. If he comes back with that same intensity his team could feed off of him and make Washington into a dangerous opponent.
Winner: Boston Bruins
While the Bruins didn't have regular season success against the Caps, they were built to win. And once that sleeping giant wakes up they're going to be nearly unbeatable. Unless the Caps can play consistent, winning hockey they have no real chance against Boston.
#3 Florida Panthers vs #6 New Jersey Devils
In the most backwards matchup of the playoffs...
#3 Florida
A team that looks like it was thrown together in free agency seems to have found chemisty on the ice. They led the Southeast Division (not a hard thing to do) for most of the season and found some success against some of the top teams around the league. However, they backed into the playoffs by clinching their #3 spot on the final day of the season.
Florida has a strong top line in Fleischmann, Weiss, and Versteeg. Versteeg has cup-winning experience which may be a great help to this young Florida team reaching the playoffs for the first time in a dozen years. This line clicked and won games for Florida that they probably shouldn't have won. Combined, they have 15 game-winning goals. The entire rest of the team has only 16.
A difference maker for Florida will be their defense. Florida is the other team in the playoffs with a negative goal differential at a whopping -24. If Florida hopes to win against the Devils they need to be able to shut down the offense with stingy defensive play.
#6 New Jersey
The Devils probably have the easiest 1st round matchup. They finished the season with 102 points versus the 94 points Florida was able to obtain (by getting all those 3rd points in OT/Shootout losses.)
Expect NJ to walk all over Florida. They have a powerful offense led by Ilya Kovalchuk and Zach Parise, a solid defensive corps, and Hall of Fame goaltending in Marty Brodeur. Kovalchuk finished 5th in the NHL in points this season and can be expected to have a big playoffs against Florida's weak defense.
The Devils are a solid team all-around and in any other division would have led, but being in the league-best Atlantic division they ended up 4th in the division, good for 6th overall.
Winner: New Jersey Devils
Sure, Florida will come out flying and want to win since it's their first playoffs in over a decade, but they stand no chance against the Devils. Unless they shut down Kovalchuk and play a lot of close games (and New Jersey has a meltdown) don't expect anything but a Devils win.
#4 Pittsburgh Penguins vs #5 Philadelphia Flyers
The matchup everyone will be watching. The Battle of Pennsylvania has been hot all year, especially at the end. I won't say much about it because it would be better for you to just watch. Seriously.
I can say the same things about both teams. Neither have any real weaknesses. For the Flyers you can argue that their goaltending could be the downfall, but it looks like Ilya Bryzgalov found his game near the end of the season. If he continues strongly then the Flyers only need to outscore Pittsburgh. Pittsburgh's one downfall could be the defense (or injuries.) An injury to Kris Letang or Crosby could hurt their chances, but the team only had a losing record when Letang wasn't in the lineup.
Both have high-octane offenses that can score goals at will, both have great coaching, and both have strong depth. Both have made it to the Stanely Cup finals in the past three years so many of the players have a lot of experience.
Winner: Philadelphia Flyers
The Flyers rookies have made a difference all year long and I fully expect them to make a difference in the playoffs. I don't think Bryz will falter now that he's found his game, but I do think the Penguins will be overconfident and focus more on trying to beat up Philly than trying to win the game.
Western Conference
This will be short since I don't get to see as many Western games as I would like...
#1 Vancouver Canucks vs #8 Los Angeles Kings
The Canucks won the Presidents' Trophy again this year with a dominating second half to the season. And they did it without Daniel Sedin at the end. They have strong goaltending in Cory Schneider (and Luongo, I guess) and they should have no problem shutting down the offense of any team in the west. In any matchup where their defense mysteriously fails they have an offense that makes magic happen.
The Kings struggled all season to find offense despite having many great pieces offensively. They've had to rely on the amazing work of Vezina-candidate Jonathan Quick who put up career numbers and would have run away with the Vezina had Henrik Lundvist not already decided to do so. Quick kept the Kings in so many games they should have lost and carried them into the #8 spot in the West.
Winner: Vancouver Canucks
For the Kings to win this matchup they need Quick to be even better than he was in the regular season. That might not be possible. For the Canucks to win they just have to continue playing their dominant game and they should defeat Los Angeles with little trouble.
#2 St. Louis Blues vs #7 San Jose Sharks
The Blues had an incredible season. Their goaltending highlighted this team's stingy defense by leading the NHL in nearly all stats. Jaroslav Halak and Brian Elliott split goaltending duties all year with neither becoming the clear #1 goalie as each tried to one-up the other. Their great stats were boosted by a very strong defensive corps. The offense finished 22nd in the league but there was no need for it to dominate teams as the defense was more than enough. The Blues really backed into the playoffs with a 4-3-3 record in their last 10 and if they hope to win the Cup they need to pick their game back up to the level it was just a month ago.
The Sharks had a disappointing season compared to many of their past seasons but it should have been expected after they moved so many pieces in the offseason. The weak spot on San Jose is their goaltending. Antti Niemi won a Cup with Chicago, but he wasn't very good and still isn't great. He doens't need to be amazing against St. Louis, but he'll need to be if San Jose wants to get past round 2. San Jose also needs big games from its top players: Thornton, Pavelski, Marleau.
Winner: St. Louis Blues
The goaltending and defense of St. Louis is just too good for the San Jose offense, which isn't the powerhouse it used to be. San Jose needs more things to go right than they need things to go wrong for St. Louis in order to win this matchup.
#3 Phoenix Coyotes vs #6 Chicago Blackhawks
Phoenix is having another great year with a team that no one expected to win anything. Solid team play, good defense, and surprising offense and goaltending have helped this team win their first ever division title and finish 3rd in the West. Mike Smith, who hasn't had a good season until now, started putting up Vezina-quality numbers. He's hot at the right time and if he carries that into this series he can single-handedly defeat Chicago. Great, and surprising numbers, by Vrbata and Ray Whitney led the Phoenix Coyotes in offense, but they need to continue that offense if they hope to go deep into the playoffs. Whitney has invaluable experience from winning the Cup with a similar team in Carolina (from the point of view that they weren't the very best and had a lot of contribution across the board.)
Chicago has the experience, the offense, and the defense to win. They don't have the goaltending or their captain. In order for them to make it past Phoenix they need to get something out of goaltender Corey Crawford and Ray Emery. They also need to not fall back into whatever the hell they did to lose 9 straight games in the second half of the season.
Winner: Phoenix Coyotes
As long as Phoenix keeps doing what it has been doing they should be able to handle and defeat Chicago. Contributions from all four lines will keep Chicago off-balance. The series changer: Paul Bissonnette. His tweets will single-handedly bring down not just the Chicago team but the entire organization.
#4 Nashville Predators vs #5 Detroit Red Wings
I think this is going to be much like the Flyers-Penguins matchup. It's the one to watch in the West. Although, there will be a lot less violence. The Predators have the chance to go far this year, but they have to defeat the rival Red Wings first. Arguably having the best top defensive pair in the league in Ryan Suter and Shea Weber, the Predator defense should not have as maany problems in shutting down Datsyuk as most other teams in the league. Their goaltending is top-notch, so their only worry should be their offense (which hasn't been a worry at all) putting enough on the board every night to win.
The Red Wings looked like they were going to run away with the West for a while there but came back down to Earth enough to finish in the #5 spot. For them to make a huge impact in the playoffs they need to get contributions across the board and can't rely on Datsyuk to carry the team. Jimmy Howard has to play consistent good goaltending through the series, and if he gets injured again, the backups have to bring it.
Winner: Nashville Predators
This series will come down to a lot of close games, but Nashville should take it in the end, and if they do, I very much expect them to make it to the conference finals, if not win the Stanley Cup. I think it's about time Nashville had a shot.
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