Other than the hockey itself, watching people make predictions about who is going to win an NHL playoff series can be the most entertaining thing about the playoffs. Some of the rationales conceived by overzealous fans and “homer” journalists alike can make both the heart and brain say, “Wait, we never said any of those things; that team in 6 games? Are you hourly?!” Hockey, more than any other sport, embodies the idea that you only need to get in the playoffs to have a shot. The seeds ultimately mean next to nothing due to the parity in the league, and that makes the first round not only incredibly difficult to predict, but often the most entertaining round to watch. Case in point: both 4/5 matchups are between two 100 point teams.
Anthropomorphic organs aside, I will be doing my best to predict the first round winners, but not focusing so much on the actual prediction as I will the omens that play into each team’s favor coming into the playoffs. I will do this round by round, not because I don’t trust my predictions to go all four rounds in one shot, but if I am looking at these so-called “omens,” I should at least try to keep it relevant. So bear with me as I dust off the crystal ball, look into some interesting facts, and of course, make my picks for who comes out of round 1 still alive.
The Beasts of the East (aka The Atlantic Division and Friends):
#1) New York Rangers vs. #8) Ottawa Senators
In the Rangers’ Favor: John Tortorella won the cup in Tampa in his third full season with the team, after they won the East. The same situation applies to the Rangers this year, but that’s mainly just a fun fact. The Rangers have the NHL’s best goalie, one of the best defenses, and a multidimensional offense that is clicking at the right time. Gaborik, Richards and Hagelin could not be playing at a higher level right now.
In the Senators’ favor: The season series. For whatever reason, the Senators played the Rangers very well this year, including winning both games at MSG. The reason I bring this up is because it doesn’t matter. Not one bit. The playoffs are a whole different universe of hockey, and for this very reason, I hate the season series argument. I’d like to put something positive here for the Senators, and the best I can think of is that the hockey gods may take over and get Alfredsson his much-deserved cup.
Prediction: The Rangers are simply too good, and midnight will chime on Ottawa’s Cinderella season. Rangers in 5.
#2) Boston Bruins vs. #7) Washington Capitals
In the Bruins’ Favor: If I’m a player on the Bruins, I skate out for game on at the TD Garden, look up and see that “2011 Stanley Cup Champions” banner, and immediately flash back to how the Bruins came out in round one last year and fell flat on their face. I’d be ready to not let that happen this year, and the fans should be ready as well. With Thomas back in the crease full time, and the Bruins having learned their lesson from last year, I can’t see any team coming out more energized than Boston heading into the first round.
In the Capitals’ favor: The Caps’ biggest problem this year was finding an identity. Changing coaches and dealing with some crucial injuries didn’t help, but did prove a couple of things. First, the Caps can play without Mike Green. Second, they CANNOT play without Nick Backstrom. The Caps have found their game, and their identity recently, not surprisingly with Backstrom’s return to the lineup. They go into the playoffs this year without the burden of high expectations, and that could actually help them.
Prediction: The Caps are hot, but I see the awakening of a slumbering bear. The Bruins will elevate their game to a whole new level in time for the playoffs. Bruins in 6.
#3) Florida Panthers vs. #6) New Jersey Devils
In the Panthers’ favor: The Panthers’ success this year has largely been the result of some on-the-fly rebuilding by Dale Tallon, who for all intents and purposes should have a Stanley Cup Ring for the 2010 Chicago Blackhawks. He has done an incredible job building the Panthers into a team that will out work you with a blue collar attitude, and a true team effort. These types of teams tend to do very well come playoff time, when skill can take a backseat to effort, discipline and teamwork.
In the Devils’ favor: The last time the Panthers saw a playoff game happened to be against the Devils. Brodeur was in goal, and Elias and Sykora were integral pieces of the Devils’ offence. It was also 12 years ago. But the Devils will be hoping for history to repeat itself. They swept the Panthers in the first round on their way to a Stanley Cup. They’re also the hottest team in the league, heading into the playoffs on a six game winning streak.
Prediction: The Devils are hot, the Panthers sputtered to the gate. The Devils have more experience (notably in goal), are no stranger to a blue collar game, and I can’t believe I am saying this about them, but more firepower up front. Devils in 6.
#4) Pittsburgh Penguins vs. #5) Philadelphia Flyers
In the Penguins’ favor: Astrology. The stars have aligned quite nicely for a Pittsburgh team that lost two key players for long stretches this season due to injury. This team was one of the best when Crosby and Letang were out. Now that they’re back, they are the team to beat this year. Snapping up home ice at the end of the season was crucial, especially given their matchup, and I like the way it tilts the table.
In the Flyers’ favor: Going along with the pinball analogy, contact. They have been colloquially referred to as the Broad Street Bullies since the days Bernie Parent was competing with only Jesus in the saves category, and Bobby Clarke’s toothless grin whistled its way to a pair of cups. Those days are gone, but this year more than ever, that nickname is more than relevant. The Flyers were able to bully their way to taking 5 out of 6 from the Pens this season. Some people feel that fighting disappears in the playoffs. It goes down, yes, but hitting and physicality picks up, and no one does that better than the Broad Street Bullies.
Prediction: The Flyers are a top team in the East, and the bullying will work, to an extent. I think the Penguins have taken the necessary steps to not be out muscled. Regardless, it will be a long, brutal series. If it were a movie, it would be called There Will Be Blood. Ultimately, I think home ice is key, and the Penguins are just too good at everything. Penguins in 7.
The Best of the (loosely defined) West
#1) Vancouver Canucks vs. #8) Los Angeles Kings
In the Canucks’ favor: Experience , Goaltending and a Hot Streak. The Canucks ended the season scorching hot, passing St. Louis and New York to claim their second Presidents’ Trophy in just as many years. This is one of those teams that seems to possess no Achilles’ Heel, and the loss of leading goal-scorer Daniel Sedin hasn’t slowed them down. Critics tend to point at the goaltending situation, criticizing Roberto Luongo, and calling for Cory Schneider to take the reins in goal. I fail to see how two quality goaltenders is a problem. The one that plays better will get the minutes, as if Vancouver needs any more luxuries heading into the playoffs.
In the Kings’ favor: Their mindset. The Kings’ offense was absolutely dreadful this season. Goaltender Jonathan Quick now has the distinction of being a starting goalie to lose 6 starts in a season, despite giving up only on goal. Seriously, look at Quick’s numbers. An even halfway productive offense would have sealed the Pacific Division for the Kings back in March. The good news is that because of their low-scoring hockey, and last minute scramble to squeak in at #8, the Kings have been playing playoff hockey for quite some time, and this could favor them against an opponent that may have the most pressure on them in the history of pressure, notably Roberto Luongo. Also of note, the deadline acquisition of Jeff Carter has boosted their offense somewhat.
Prediction: The pressure is ENTIRELY on Vancouver, but I think they can rise above it. I love the scrappy attitude of the Kings, I truly do, but Vancouver is just too good. While I pick Vancouver, let the record show that I have this series flagged as potential for an upset. I will stop before I talk myself out of this one. Canucks in 6.
#2) St. Louis Blues vs. #7) San Jose Sharks
In the Blues’ favor: Yet another team that has been playing playoff style hockey for most of the season. Since Ken Hitchcock took over as their coach, the Blues style has been categorized by stingy defense, unearthly goaltending, and a concerted team effort from all 20 guys on any given night. Like I said in reference to the Panthers, these types of teams tend to do well in the playoffs, and like I said about Vancouver, having two bona fide options in goal is a blessing, and I think the Blues do these two things better than even Florida and Vancouver, respectively.
In the Sharks’ favor: History and a clean slate. Allow me to elaborate, the Sharks have an interesting history when it comes to playing David in the playoffs. Most notably, this happened in 2000, against the President’s Trophy winning St. Louis Blues. Does this have any standing in the 2012 playoffs? Probably not, but I did say that I would try to splice in some fun facts in this article. I think this sharks team is far better than the 2000 team, at least on paper, which brings me to my next point. The Sharks were picked by many to contend for a Pacific Division title, and to be a serious contender this year. Certainly on paper, one would be hard pressed to argue. The Sharks underachieved this season, but when you have the potential to be as good as the San Jose corps, a clean slate could not help any team more this year. For a team that is often (unfairly) labeled as a playoff underachiever that can only play regular season hockey, maybe the questionable finish to this year is a welcome change and powerful wake-up call to these beasts of the deep.
Prediction: I like the Sharks chances against almost any other team n the West, but not against St. Louis. The Blues have everything that a Cup winner needs (in some cases, twice as much). I think that The Sharks put up a better effort than we saw for much of the regular season, again, enough to beat many teams they could have ended up with, but not the Blues. Goliath slays David this time around. Blues in 5.
#3) Phoenix Coyotes vs. #6) Chicago Blackhawks
In the Coyotes’ favor: Goaltending and Tactics. Mike Smith has been one of the best kept secrets in the NHL this season. His play in goal is incredible, and one can argue that he singlehandedly carried the Coyotes to their first ever division crown and a playoff berth. Not to take anything away from the rest of the team, but Dave Tippett’s coaching has the Coyotes playing the most tactically sound hockey of any team in the league. That can frustrate opponents, and coupled with stellar goaltending, creates a winning formula.
In the Blackhawks’ favor: All sings point to the return of Jonathan Toews from a concussion. Beyond that, this team is an enigma. Aside from maybe the Washington Capitals this year, the Blackhawks had one of the most bi-polar seasons that I can remember. They are only 2 years removed from a Stanley Cup, and many of the core pieces are still around, so for the Blackhawks to have a shot at out-howling the desert dogs, the Blackhawks will need to play like the team that won in 2010, and not the team that lost 9 in a row in January-February. I believe that the return of Toews will spark them to play like the former.
Prediction: This was by far the most difficult series to predict, and I ultimately skipped ahead and wrote this last. I have yet to pick a sweep in the first round, and I’m not going to do it here either. I like the Blackhawks chances with Toews coming back, and I think they will be patient enough to pick apart the X and O happy Coyotes. Hawks in 6.
#4) Nashville Predators vs. #5) Detroit Red Wings
In the Predators’ favor: Destiny. The Predators management, players, and fan base seem to have it engrained in their minds that this is the year to strike. Nashville has been in the league for 14 years, and in those 14 years, they have been a team notoriously tight with the pocketbook, out of necessity. Beginning this offseason, the Predators started spending. They accepted the award in arbitration for Shea Weber. They extended their goalie Pekka Rinne to a long term big money contract. They have some major obstacles in free agency this summer, and are pulling out all the stops this year, almost in an “all-or-nothing” fashion, even going so far as to bring back controversial (but talented) forward Alexander Radulov. The Predators will look at this feeling of “Manifest Destiny” to boil over into their play this Spring.
In the Red Wings’ favor: They are the Detroit Red Wings. I don’t know what else needs to be said. This organization never ceases to amaze me with how the players can all turn up their game come playoff time. Johan Franzen is one of those players that seemingly ever playoff year plays at an absurd level, and what can you say about Nick Lidstrom, other than his inclusion in a discussion about the best defensemen in the history of the game.
Prediction: Well, I suppose I need to pick an upset at some point, right (I don’t know many who consider picking New Jersey over Florida an “upset.”)? I think the Red Wings’ experience takes over in this series, and they will play off of this experience to outplay the Predators when it counts, notably in the road game 7 that I see happening all too vividly. Red Wings in 7.
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