The Shootout, worth it?

Welcome to my first ever post looking at making the league a better place. There's lots of things people argue about in the NHL. It's a very divisive league. On a good day you will hear people arguing about things like Hits, Icing, Bringing back the two-line pass, etc... However you can always recognize the people who seem to actually care by listening to the ones who discuss the Shootout. As the very first post of this fledgling blog, Chris wrote about how he felt about the shootout. I'm of much the same mind. I think the tie-breaking in the NHL has become little more than a sham. I'm not a fan of 3 point games, and I think the league could be better simply by doing away with what amounts to little more than a skills competition.



When I was talking to Chris about this at the end of the season, he asked if the shootout really made any difference. It got me to wondering, does the extra point gained from the shootout really change anything? If teams were to end OT tied and each get a point, would it make that much of a difference? I asked John and he told me to figure it out.

So I did some math, or rather I did some fancy Excel work. I basically took away the point gained for winning a shootout. If the teams went to the shootout, they both got one point. If a team lost in OT I also took away the "loser" point. Just to see what would happen to the standings if it was either a Win, a Loss, or a Tie. Nothing in between.
The Divisions are shown below, seeded according to the new points, rather than the old.

EAST
Team	Pts	Wins	ROW	SOW	OTL	SOL	"New" pts	Seed
NYR	109	51	47	4	7	5	103	1
BOS	102	49	40	9	4	3	92	2
WAS	92	42	38	4	8	4	84	3
PHI	103	47	43	4	9	7	97	4
PIT	108	51	42	9	6	3	96	5
NJD	102	48	36	12	6	4	88	6
FLA	94	38	32	6	18	11	81	7
OTT	92	41	35	6	10	4	80	8
BUF	89	39	32	7	11	7	78	9
TBL	84	38	35	3	8	3	76	10
WPG	84	37	33	4	10	4	74	11
CAR	82	33	32	1	16	6	71	12
TOR	80	35	31	4	10	5	71	13
MTL	78	31	26	5	16	12	69	14
NYI	79	34	27	7	11	4	65	15
WEST
Team	Pts	Wins	ROW	SOW	OTL	SOL	"New" pts	Seed
STL	109	49	45	4	11	10	104	1
VAN	111	51	43	8	9	7	101	2
PHX	97	42	36	6	13	10	88	3
NSH	104	48	43	5	8	5	96	4
DET	102	48	39	9	6	3	90	5
CHI	101	45	38	7	11	7	90	6
LAK	95	40	34	6	15	9	83	7
SJS	96	43	34	9	10	5	82	8
DAL	89	42	35	7	5	4	81	9
CGY	90	37	34	3	16	9	80	10
COL	88	41	32	9	6	2	75	11
ANA	80	34	31	3	12	7	72	12
MIN	81	35	24	11	11	9	68	13
EDM	74	32	27	5	10	7	66	14
CBJ	65	29	25	4	7	5	59	15

Funny thing, not much changes. The St Louis blues, one of the strongest teams last year, wins the President's Trophy they deserved. Washington moves into third and faces the devils in the first round while Boston gets a much different opponent in Florida. The San Jose Sharks end up in 8th, but still go up against St Louis. The East may have been a different playoff battle, but the West hardly changes.

This leads me to believe the shootout is entirely ineffective. Nothing changes, Except for the two seeds different in the East, and I don't know if that would have changed the outcome that much. Florida may have proven a very difficult opponent to Boston, and Washington may have given the Devils, who struggled early in the playoffs, a run for their money. What it came down to this year was that an 8th (or in this case 7th) seed played outstanding Hockey to capture their first ever Stanley Cup. I don't know if there was a team going into these playoffs that could have come close.

When talking to John about this he asked me what would happen if the league just got rid of OT and went back to the good old days of the Win, Loss, Tie. I figured I could take a look at that, I mean how much different could it be?

EAST	OTW	"Tie" pts	Seed
NYR	12	97	1
BOS	11	91	2
FLA	7	85	3
PIT	11	92	4
PHI	10	98	5
NJD	16	86	6
WAS	11	83	7
OTT	11	81	8
CAR	4	85	9
BUF	12	72	10
WPG	10	74	11
TBL	13	69	12
TOR	9	71	13
MTL	7	71	14
NYI	10	69	15
WEST	OTW	"Tie" pts	Seed
STL	7	102	1
VAN	15	96	2
PHX	9	88	3
NSH	8	96	4
DET	12	90	5
CHI	11	90	6
LAK	9	86	7
CGY	5	91	8
SJS	12	77	9
DAL	11	79	10
ANA	5	83	11
COL	16	64	12
MIN	13	68	13
EDM	7	67	14
CBJ	6	59	15

Well the east would have gone into the playoffs entirely unchanged from this year. Florida, who had so much success in overtime was great at getting to OT. Meaning they would've had a large amount of Tie points. The West isn't that much different. The bottom 8 have bounced around some, in both conferences, but the real story here is Calgary. Without the extra "loser" point, Calgary is able to push ahead of San Jose and take the 8th spot. Would this have changed the playoffs and the result? Probably not. Would it have been interesting to see? Absolutely! Calgary would've made the playoffs for the first time since the 08-09 season.

So what does all of this mean?
Well to sum it up, the shootout does nothing. It's just a glorified skills competition. Without getting rid of OT and just going back to the Win-Lose-Tie system the season itself does a pretty good job of sorting out who belongs where. I guess there is something to be said for an 82 game season. Statistically, the best teams are going to be the ones to make the playoffs.

Getting rid of the shootout would be fine, but it wouldn't change anything, at least not in any major way. The only way that teams are going to get better is with great scouting, great management, and great coaching. The players can only do so much. Until it proves to be a major problem, the NHL might as well leave the shootout in. It's something for the more casual fans to enjoy, and it keeps them coming back for more.

And besides, the shootout is always a good time to see stuff like this:

I'm not a fan of the shootout, but with the data, I can't make a good case for getting rid of it. It pains me a little, but that's just the way it is. So until next time!
~Thanks for Reading!
Ben