“How the hell are we supposed to score on that guy?”
It’s a
legitimate question, Mr. Hypothetical Phoenix Coyotes/Los Angeles Kings
forward. And though it is hypothetical here, I think we can say with reasonable
certainty that this phrase will be uttered amongst both benches many, many
times over the course of this series. How could it not? How could any fan with
a modest knowledge of the unfolding of these playoffs not immediately see this as
a showdown of two titanic goalies (but with a better handling of ice)? I don’t mean to understate all of the work
done by the other 36 skaters that will undoubtedly continue to work their tails
off during every minute of this series, but can anybody realistically claim
that either of these teams would be in the conference finals without their
goaltending? I’d be curious to hear your argument. Just look at the numbers for
these guys: Jonathan Quick is 8-1 with 1 shutout, has a GAA of 1.55 and a SVP
of .949. Not to be outdone, Mike Smith is 8-3 with 2 shutouts, has a GAA of
1.77 and a SVP of .948. These are the kind of numbers that showed up when stick
blades were straight, and elevating the puck was illegal.
Ignore
the “3-seed, 8-seed” thing. It means squat. Not only was this a case of a team
winning a “weak” division (Phoenix only had 2 points more than Los Angeles this
season, and San Jose was in between!), but is also a case of teams wholly
outplaying their regular season showings. I’d like to think that home ice makes
a difference here (especially in the Desert in late May), but that hasn’t
mattered one iota during these playoffs, largely thanks to the Kings who are
currently 5-0 on the road this postseason. The fact is that a myriad of molds
have been broken this postseason. They are difficult to predict, and not just
for me (seemingly for everybody except NZT’s own Ben Plotsky…kudos). With that
in mind, let’s take a look at where these teams came from, what needs to happen
now, and where they are going…yes, I will conclude with a prediction despite a
horribly calibrated crystal ball.
The Los
Angeles Kings remind me in some ways of last year’s Boston Bruins: A goaltender
putting up unworldly numbers, a big-money defensemen who has taken his game up
to a whole new level, four solid lines of forwards that can play both sides of
the puck and play rough if needed, defensive depth and versatility, the sudden
and subtle emergence of a rookie who looks poised to play a long and successful
NHL career, and last but not least, AN ABYSMAL POWERPLAY. Boston’s powerplay at
the end of the playoffs last season was operating at 11.4%. That’s terrible,
but you know what’s worse? Try the 8.5% efficiency at which Los Angeles is
operating. I wrote in my prediction for the first round series between Boston
and Washington that Boston needed to have a better powerplay. They didn’t. They
finished the first round at 8.7%, and lost, but like last year’s Bruins, the
Kings are more than making up for it with strong penalty killing and 5 on 5
play. They have a postseason high 4 shorthanded goals, and have leveraged that
with a tough penalty kill to steamroll over Vancouver and St. Louis, the top
two seeds in the Western Conference. When you couple that type of dominance
with a goaltender stopping 19 of every 20 pucks, you go places. You go places
such as, oh I don’t know, the Western Conference Finals? Notably, the Kings
have won series in 5 and 4 games. Last year’s Bruins won 3 game 7s, one of
which was in overtime.
The
Phoenix Coyotes did things the hard way in their first round matchup with the
Chicago Blackhawks. The first five games of that series went to overtime,
largely due to an unhealthy Coyote tendency to give up very late game-tying
goals. Generally a recipe for disaster, the Coyotes didn’t seem to let this
faze them; in fact, you could say they welcomed it. While we can lament their
play late in the third period, we cannot lament it in overtime, as they
compiled a 4-2 record in the first two rounds in that scenario, highlighted by
back-to-back overtime winners by Mikkel Boedker against Chicago to take control
of the series. In round two against Nashville, Phoenix leaned on Smith’s
goaltending and was able to scrape up wins in 4 out of 5, despite being heavily
outplayed over very long stretches by Nashville, in some cases being outshot
almost 2 to 1. Much like their opponent, Phoenix was able to accomplish this
with depth and balance, four capable, hard working lines that coach Dave
Tippett could roll.
Well,
what needs to be done for either of these teams to swing what by all accounts
should be a low-scoring goaltenders’ duel in their favor? The answer is fairly
obvious for Los Angeles; they need to get the powerplay working. In a series
where defense and goaltending will take the front stage, being able to
capitalize on the powerplay is paramount to success. It may be the only chance
LA will have to get consistent good chances against Mike Smith. If the
powerplay wakes up, I don’t see a reason why LA should not take this series.
They have played well enough shorthanded and five-on-five that a good powerplay
will complete the spectrum, and make LA too much to handle for the Desert Dogs.
Phoenix, on the other hand will need to become a more controlling team five on
five. This is a big strength of the Kings, and Phoenix had a strong tendency to
be out possessed for long stretches of play, only to sit back, defend well, be
opportunistic on breakouts and turnovers and of course, get some solid
goaltending from that Mike Smith guy. A team that takes advantage of its
opportunities, as Phoenix has, always gives themselves a chance to win, but
against Jonathan Quick and the Kings defense, those opportunities will be
scarce, and then there’s always beating Quick, no easy task.
Predicting
this series is a challenge. Part of me thinks they should just drop the puck
and keep playing until someone scores, then just let that team go to the
finals. It could very well be more than 21 periods of hockey either way, so why
not? They say that breaking a mirror brings you seven years of bad luck, but
given what Quick and Smith will be staring at in the opposing goal, one of them
is going to have to do it. Which one does? Seven is certainly an interesting
number in this case. This is a long series, and neither team has played a game
7 yet. I think that’s what it will take, and I think the road warrior work that
the Kings have done will help. I love what Mike Smith and Phoenix have done,
but in this case, I think Los Angeles will just be over the top, as having Jon
Quick negates the strength of the Coyotes goaltending, forcing the game to be
played between the goal lines (imagine that). I expect the Kings to figure out
their powerplay woes, and continue strong play 5 on 5, tilting the ice towards tinsel
town. Kings in seven.
As I
put the finishing touches on this, the Rangers and Capitals are fighting for
their lives, and fighting for a dance with the Devils. I will enjoy the rest of
this game, hopefully make my pick for the Eastern Conference tomorrow, take a
breath, and realize that all of this excitement is only halfway over.
Until then, cheers.
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